Not Exactly Your Grampa’s Blitzkrieg.
Every world leader should be taking notes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in Ukraine. That by itself will put spine in your people.
“Putin is having a lot of trouble right now. He’s having big, big trouble because he thought it was going to be a 48-hour deal and the Ukrainians are good fighters.” Employing his trademark flourish and bombast, last week, former President Trump sums up the current war in Eastern Europe better than anyone.
At this point, we can safely call the Russian invasion of Ukraine a strategic blunder. I’ve previously stated here that trying to justify this war on Kiev having once been the seat of the Russian Empire is a thin reed at best. Right now if you’re Vladimir Putin, you’re not even thinking about victory. First creeping thought: is there a way to claim victory? Second creeping thought: how do I get out of this and remain in power? Third creeping thought: what nation will take me in? Fourth creeping thought: how much money will they let me keep? Tertiary thoughts: Can I replace myself with a puppet? Can I replace myself with someone who won’t try to prosecute me?
“Putin is having a lot of trouble right now. He’s having big, big trouble because he thought it was going to be a 48-hour deal and the Ukrainians are good fighters.”
Donald J. Trump, 10 March 2020.
The real motives driving the Ukrainian Invasion are several. I’ll just name two. (1) Agricultural. The Oligarchy ruling Russia wants control over Ukraine’s massive food production. The two countries combined account for 40% of the world’s wheat exports. (2) Technology. Ukraine’s Tech Industry has a global reach and rivals that of China and Silicon Valley (4,000 mico-biology labs across the country. Let that sink in.) Complementing this capability with Russia’s robust Tech Industry would have an exponential effect.
Ukraine and Russia. Every Army Marches On Its Stomach.
Food and Technology. Add Russia’s colossal energy reserves and industrial base. Add another 10 years to consolidate, and then what could possibly stop them?
History is full of “what ifs?” What if the 300,000 French troops in the Rhineland has not backed off in 1936 when the Germans sent in 22,000 troops? What if the Allies marched into Poland and took it back from the Russians in 1945? Or my personal favorite – what if Woodrow Wilson had told J.P. Morgan, the Rockefellers, the Rothschilds, and the Meyers to go pound sand in 1917?
We have now arrived at an interesting point in history where we don’t have to ask, “what if the Ukrainians has fought back?” In the calculus leading up to the current conflict, the Russian General Staff clearly did not account for the resolve of the Ukrainian People.
Another mis-calculation – the unpopularity of this war on the Russian Homefront. National Public Radio (NPR) reported this week that tens of thousands of Russian citizens have fled their own nation. These are mostly young urbanites, fearful of the possibility of a new iron curtain falling across Europe.
My heart breaks for the Ukrainian people. My heart also breaks for the Russian Troops who are going to die in the hellish urban warfare that is waiting for them. They did not ask for this. No soldier does. Urban fighting is bloody and deaths are staggering. One doesn’t have to go back very far. Just read up on the 2016 battle for Mosul.
Ukraine And The Human Cost Of War.
My heart also breaks for the families of the Russian soldiers destined to become casualties. Another report from NPR this week cited that the Russian Army’s mortuary affairs operations have already run out of refrigeration space for their KIAs. Bodies of Russian soldiers are being left to decompose at room temperatures.
All this before Russian forces have even entered Kiev. What comfort can the Russian government offer the families of these soldiers once the body bags start coming home in earnest? What reparations can the Russian Government offer the fighters and citizens of Ukraine once this is over and their forces slink back home in defeat?
Among the objectives of the current Russian offensive is the capture of Ukraine’s Tech Industry – intact, the capture of Ukraine’s manufacturing base – intact, and the capture of the nation’s power and communications grid – also intact. Without these objectives, then all that’s left is for the Russian Army to grind the urban centers to dust, and de-populate. Then they will be fighting in the rubble for decades. And that’s only if the Western Powers stand by and do nothing.
And maybe that’s in our best interest. To allow Putin to break his army here and now. As of this writing it appears that he’s already turned off the spigot for the rest of Europe to divert Russia’s energy to feed its army. Maintaining a standing army is expensive. The cost of mobilizing and deploying forces is nearly incalculable.
The complexity of America’s actions and interest is a perpetual debate. There’s been a lot of saber rattling, particularly by the soft handed never-Trumpers like Mitt Romney and Jonah Goldberg. Being a tough guy with other people’s kids is never a good look.
The Biden administration’s pusillanimous fumbling on sending MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine though Poland may have in the end, been the correct decision. United States and Poland want to take a cautious approach at this point. Incremental steps that could lead to direct confrontation with Russia need to be managed with extreme care.
How Does This End?
Field Marshall Montgomery famously wrote that the first rule of warfare is “Never March on Moscow.” He was probably not the first to think this one up. Another general either before or after him humorously said that the first rule of warfare is “do not march on Moscow,” and the second rule is “do not march on Moscow.”
Among Russian Generals, the first rule of warfare is “Do not march on Finland.” OK, I really don’t know if that’s true, but it’s funny and it makes sense. The Russian Army found out to it sorrow that Finland is not a fun place to fight during their own Winter offensive in 1939. Ever experience weather so cold, the gasoline froze in your vehicle? The Russian Army did. A little known fact of history – Finland is the only World War II Axis power to never surrender.
Given events on the ground, “don’t march on Ukraine” may end up being a pithy quote between Russian generals once this is all over.
I’ll make a bold prediction here: this ends with the Russian Army’s ignominious retreat. Either in 6 months or 6 years.
This ends with Ukraine informing the United States and the other Western Powers, “we owe you nothing.”
Selah.
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