As of this post, the wire services are reporting that Russia has placed its nuclear forced on “high alert.” I don’t know what this means. Neither do you. Are pairs of key inserted and turned? Are preliminary launch codes punched in? Have the white coats and uniforms manning the siloes brought their sleeping bags to work? Or are they just sacking out on cots between shifts? Or is it just meaningless turn of phrase?
The Ambiguous Case Of Ukraine
The contradictions seemingly go on forever. Centuries ago, the Czar used to be called The Grand Prince of Kiev (located in modern day Ukraine). This is a thin reed on which to justify a crusade for reunification.
Today, Ukraine maintains a separate identity from their Russian cousins, and through the centuries developed a seperate language evolved from Old East Slavic.
Taking an inch before taking a mile
According to the Associated Press and the Pentagon’s own briefing, Russian troops were already inside Ukraine likely in the southern part of the country. This is in addition to the Russian military’s invasion of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. Maybe that’s what Obama meant when he whispered to Molosovich that he would have “more flexibility” after his re-election.
The Russian government is adversarial in nature. For about 5 seconds back in the 90’s, the general perception was that Russia was the new hotness.
Shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, Russia found itself under the gentle hand of amiable drunk Boris Yeltsin. Détente, Glasnost, or whatever you want to call it, we avoided nuclear war, and came out the other side of the Cold War victorious. Even The Left tried to ride Reagan’s coattails, claiming “we won the Cold War!” Reagan summoning his famous dry sense of humor quipped at the ’92 RNC convention, “what do you mean, ‘we’?”
That was then…
Today Russia is ruled by an expansionist oligarchy headed by former KGB official Vladimir Putin. He is not one of the good guys. He is of course, a force with which to be reckoned.
Russia is, in terms of natural resources, the wealthiest nation on earth. They sit on more energy, farmland, and minerals, than anyone else. The overarching issue with that, is they simply lack the economic system to realize their enormous wealth. Much like Nigeria sitting on an ocean of petroleum, Russia would rather keep their wealth in the ground that share it with their people.
It’s baffling, until one considers basic human nature. Humans are lazy. Given the option between global expansion and exploiting resources at home, Russia chooses global expansion. Or at least chooses to flirt with it. Because building your own infrastructure is difficult. Moving in and taking over an established infrastructure presents its own challenges. It’s still easier. Measurably easier. That’s the calculus here. The current arraignment calls for Russia exchanging energy for food. Control of Ukraine’s agriculture by Russia ends any pretense of symbiosis, giving Moscow hegemony over both food and energy. It may prove costly in terms of lives, but when has that ever stopped those who would govern the rest of us?
As of this writing, the Ukrainian government maintains sovereignty over Kiev. Time is not on Putin’s side. He needs a quick victory, but he is fight more than simply the Ukrainian army. He’s fighting an armed populace. An undisputable endorsement of our own 2nd Amendment.
Bottom line, barring an insane possibility of nuclear tipped missiles launching out of their silos, we’re not going to war with Russia. The current administration of the United States, the man who gave Afghanistan back to The Taliban is not going stand up to Vladimir Putin.
Selah.
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